The SRS research and analysis reveals the latest statistics and draw conclusions about the current crime picture in London and potential future trends.
The UK Prime minister, Boris Johnson, first imposed a UK countrywide COVID-19 lockdown on 23 March 2020. Almost two years later, on 25 February 2022, all COVID-19 restrictions were lifted entirely. During the period in between, there was a fluctuating picture of lockdowns being relaxed, followed by regional tiering, two further national lockdowns, and then a gradual easing of all restrictions as the effects of the pandemic eventually became less severe.
So, as we can imagine, during the period of restrictions on movement, there was a significant decline in recorded crime throughout London. But what has been happening since February 2022? What are the current London trends, and what can they tell us about the need for personal and corporate security in the UK capital?
Recorded Crime is on the Increase in London
As seen in the graph below (Source London Data store – Greater London Authority) -the overall crime figures nosedived during the first lockdown in 2020. They have subsequently fluctuated, but with a rising trend since the middle of 2021 to reach their current level of 76.13K in July 2022. This is some 4.5K below the previous peak in October 2019-just before the pandemic.
From 2015 until 2020, we saw a steady rise upwards, temporarily halted by the pandemic but seemingly continuing at its previous upward rate.Suppose we also factor in the current economic situation, with rapidly rising inflation fueled by soaring energy bills. In that case, it is reasonable to assume that the recorded crime trend will curve further upwards in the coming months.
Change in All Crime by London Borough
Given the recent pandemic-related decrease in crime mentioned above, we need to be cautious when viewing the annual trends, year on year. Nevertheless, it is intriguing to look at the yearly increase borough by borough, as shown in the graph below (Source London Datastore – Greater London Authority).
In London, only Hillingdon and Richmond show a slight decrease in crime year-on-year. In contrast, all other London boroughs show an annual increase, ranging from Wandsworth at 0.5% to Westminster, with a 60.7% increase.
The next highest figure after Westminster is Camden, with a 23.2% increase in crime yearly.
So, why the disproportionate increase in Westminster compared to the other London boroughs?
Firstly, we must recognise that Westminster, like Camden, has always had a much higher crime rate than other London boroughs. Moreover, despite being one of the minor geographical areas, during the daytime Westminster is one of the most densely populated boroughs: the number of residents is around 255,000, but an estimated 800,000 commuters and tourists also enter and leave the area daily.
Hence, we can extrapolate that the disproportionate year-on-year increase in crime for Westminster is heavily bound up in the post-pandemic return of office workers and tourists, with commensurate crimes such as office theft and pick-pocketing accounting for 52% of the increase.
It is reasonable to assume that the year-on-year trend for most, if not all, boroughs, whilst continuing upwards, will tail off after February 2023 as the COVID-19 effect disappears, leaving a steadily increasing trend in each London borough.
What do these figures mean for London’s corporate and personal security picture?
We strongly suggest that, with a rising trend in crime, a reducing trend in the public confidence in the police and a worsening economic picture, we all need to be ever more vigilant in our focus on security.
Based in Clerkenwell, Security Risk Specialists Ltd (SRS) provides security advice and security services in all London boroughs.
Our services include:
- Office Security
- Event and Hospitality Security
- Security Consultancy
- Personal Protection
- Residential Security
- Construction Site Security
- Security Dogs
- Front of House Security
- Bespoke Security Solutions
Yair Daren (BSc) is the Director of SRS. He is a former IDF Lieutenant and an Economics and Social Policy graduate of the University of London.
